Am I the one?

Okay, so this other question comes up a lot between rookie writers- do you think you have what it takes to get published.

No, seriously, hang around on a writing board long enough and that exact thread will show up.  Like clockwork.  Invariably there is a predictable variety of responses.  Usually the first one is a ‘Hell Yeah!’  followed by more humble responses that range anywhere from I hope so to I don’t care if I get paid.

Most of us come to writing the same way- a creative impulse and native intelligence combine with a love of reading or stories push you to write a short story or two, or occasionally write a chapter to some vast epic fantasy playing out in your head.  And the few souls you share your stories with tell you that they like what you give them.

Maybe you take a writing class at the local community college. And the teacher gives you lots of + signs on the shorts you write for class.   

Sometimes maybe you daydream of people telling you how much they loved your story or how much your book changed their life.  You imagine people sitting quietly by themselves, feeling the emotion you put on the page. 

Then you ask yourself if you’re really good enough to make it as a writer?  Do you have what it takes?  Let me give you a formula to answer that question.

This was given to me in my first year at college in the undergraduate writing program.  The precise numbers are broad, and likely inaccurate but the scale is correct.

On average there are 100,000 novels being written every year in the US.

Of that 100,000 only about 10,000 are actually readable.

Of that 10,000 only 1000 will get a partial read request from an agent or publisher.

Of that 1000 only 100 get a full read request.

Of that 100 only 10 will be up for publishing.

Of those 10, only 1 will actually get published.  

A novel has a life span of about five years. 

So, when you send out your novel to the agents and publishers, not only are you competing against the 100,000 novels written this year but the 400,000 from the previous years.  All competing for that 1 spot.

So, when thinking about competing against those 400,000 other stories if you have a moment of doubt.  Even the merest sense of hesitation…

Don’t do it.

Keep that idea of being a writer as a cozy warm dream you trot out on the winter nights as you fall asleep.  It will be a wonderful dream to have.  It will keep you warm, and you always be on the best seller list. 

You’ll have the weekends free to hang out with your friends.  Mow your lawn.  Show up for your kid’s birthday party. You won’t have that cynical part sitting inside your skull gleefully writing down every emotional nuance to be used effectively later on in a story.

You’ll have a life.

When it comes to writing you have to believe in yourself on an unimaginably arrogant level.  You must believe that you are better than anyone else.  That you are writing great stuff. You will need to stay up late to keep writing.  Get up early to edit and head off to the day job.   

Because your competition doesn’t take breaks, vacations or holidays.  They don’t have to pay rent or bills of any kind.  They get to sit at home and write their hearts out.  Getting better than you every day. 

The writing life is a life of rejection.  Even after you “make it” and get that first novel out there, you have to follow it up.  You have to pitch new ideas to publishers and agents.  You have to write even better than you did last time.  You have to start the process all over again, and compete against those numbers all over again. And again.

So, if after that you have a moment of doubt.  Go home.  Save yourself a lot of pain and regret. Save yourself a lot of rejection.

But…

If you don’t.  If you believe without hesitation that you’re that 1.  If you know it down to the very core of your being like you know the sun will come up in the East tomorrow…

Do it.  And don’t ever look back.